Yen Trading Strategies: Insights for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

USD/JPY Exchange Rate

On Thursday, USD/JPY went down and briefly fell below the 149.70 structural support. If this level is broken every day, buyers might go after 148.90, and if prices keep going down, they might aim for 147.50, which is close to the 100-day simple moving average. 

On the other hand, a bullish resurgence could try to break through the support at 150.85. If it does, it could lead to a rally towards 152.00. The pair’s drop as people wait for PCE data shows how unpredictable and upward its path is. Traders keep their eyes on this market, which is known for being reliable. 

They are especially interested in the important 150-yen level, which has historically been a support zone. Support is seen at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 147.50, which should bring buyers. Even though it doesn’t look likely that the price will break below these supports, if it did, the 200-day EMA would need to be looked at again. 

Since the Fed relies on them to track inflation, the US PCE data are very important. The big difference in interest rates between the US and Japan means that the USD/JPY pair is likely to go up again, even if it goes down in the short term.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Even though EUR/JPY went down on Thursday, it was able to stay above the 161.50 support mark. For bulls, keeping this level is very important to avoid a change in mood that would make prices fall towards 160.40. 

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 159.85 is also a target for more weakness. On the other hand, stability and an uptick could test the 164.00 support, and a break could lead to gains near 165.50. 

While people talk about the weakening of the yen, other markets may offer better chances, especially since USD/JPY has long-term support and Japan is protecting the 152.00 level. The daily chart shows how past price structures affect current trends. 

For example, the 2024 high at 163.72 is limited by a lower high from last year, and the January swing high acts as support at 161.87 overnight. If bears can hold on to this higher low, there is still a chance that prices will continue to rise. If not, rising yen strength could put more downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, especially after a break below rising wedge support.

EUR/JPY Technical Outlook

GBP/JPY Analysis

GBP/JPY went down on Thursday, breaking below the support line at 190.20 and moving toward major support at 188.50. Bulls need to protect this level so that prices don’t go down even more to the 50-day SMA at 186.35. 

If the pair goes up, it might try resistance at 190.20 and 191.30, with 191.30 being a multi-year high. It might be hard to get past these levels, but if you can, prices could rise to 193.00. After Japan’s retail sales met expectations, the yen went up, and the pair fell back to 189.00. 

Retail sales in Japan in January were 2.3% year-over-year, which was in line with forecasts. Month-over-month sales also went up to 0.8%. But Japanese Industrial Production fell to -7.5%, which was less than the -7.3% that was predicted.

The next economic events are the Japanese Unemployment Rate and the Tokyo CPI. Unemployment is forecast to stay at 2.4%. Even though it has been falling lately, GBP/JPY is still in a strong area, well above the 200-day simple moving average (183.43), which shows that traders are still optimistic even though the short term is likely to be volatile.

GBP/JPY Technical Outlook

Market Outlook

Recent economic data and market sentiments have affected the Japanese yen’s strength and weakness against major currencies. After falling below the 149.70 support level, the USD/JPY pair is being closely watched. 

It is expected to fall even further, possibly to 148.90, depending on the release of new PCE data from the US, which could have a big effect on future movements. Similarly, both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY went through retracements and tested important support levels at 161.50 and 188.50.

This move comes after Japan’s retail sales came in at 2.3% YoY, which was about what was expected, and industrial production dropped sharply to -7.5%. Traders should keep a close eye on these events because the yen’s success against the dollar, euro, and pound could bring both problems and chances.

In the short to medium term, the paths of the currency pairs will likely be affected by central bank policies, key economic measures like Japan’s Tokyo CPI and the national unemployment rate, as well as changes in the global market. 

For traders in the forex market to make smart choices, they will need to keep a close eye on technical levels and economic news as the markets move through these uncertain times.