S&P 500: A New Market Peak?

By Daniel M.

April 18, 2024   •   Fact checked by Dumb Little Man

Recent Developments

Recently, the S&P 500 failed to exceed the peak of $5264.85 from March 28. It has since fallen below key levels at $5100 and $5056. This validates our forecast of a peak around $5260, conditional on sustaining key lower thresholds. We now observe a potential downward five-wave pattern targeting $4800 in the near term, potentially followed by a rebound, dependent on the index staying below bearish thresholds.

Figure 1: Daily S&P 500 Chart with EWP Details and Indicators

SPX Monthly Chart

The possibility of a significant peak is highlighted in additional charts:

Figure 2: Monthly S&P 500 Chart with EWP Details and Indicators

SPX Monthly Chart

This scenario suggests a possible drop to $4600 before a final surge to around $5800. Alternatively, the index might have commenced a prolonged bear market post-1933 bull run, potentially reducing its value to nearly $1500.

Figure 3: Weekly S&P 500 Chart with EWP Details and Indicators

SPX Monthly Chart

Current weekly indicators mimic late 2017 dynamics, suggesting potential short-term gains similar to 2018. However, negative divergences in monthly indicators indicate these gains might be limited.


While it’s too early to confirm which scenario will unfold, the developing impulse pattern may tilt the scales toward a deeper bear market. We remain vigilant, monitoring these pivotal movements closely.

Daniel M.

Daniel Moore is a seasoned trading analyst with over 20 years of experience navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape. Renowned for his unconventional yet effective approach, Daniel utilizes a blend of technical and fundamental analysis to identify hidden gems and craft winning trade strategies. He is a master at demystifying complex market data and translating it into actionable insights for traders of all experience levels.

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