EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forecast: Two Trades to Watch

By John V

February 27, 2024   •   Fact checked by Dumb Little Man

With traders’ attention mostly on impending inflation data and central bank commentary, the FX market is set for an interesting week, particularly for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs. The EUR/USD pair has demonstrated resiliency by continuing to rise ahead of important economic data and statements from central bank officials.

EUR/USD Dynamics

eur/usd forecast chart

Ahead of data on inflation in the Eurozone and a speech by Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), the euro has gained ground versus a declining dollar. Investors are waiting anxiously for this Friday’s anticipated Eurozone CPI data, which could indicate a decline from January’s 2.8% to 2.5%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept the euro stable by not indicating any imminent interest rate decreases, even in the face of declining inflation and indications of a slowdown in the Eurozone’s economy. We’re all waiting for clues about potential future rate changes in Christine Lagarde’s address.

Technically speaking, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is where EUR/USD is testing resistance; a break above could aim for greater resistance levels.

Overview of GBP/USD

gbp/usd forecast chart

The GBP/USD pair stays stable as it follows a number of economic indicators and waits for more guidance. A weaker US dollar and better-than-expected UK services PMI data drove last week’s increase.

The emphasis now turns to Chief Economist Huw Pill of the Bank of England’s address, which could provide insight into the central bank’s rate-setting process. The service sector is proving resilient and UK inflation is still high, so expectations of a rate drop are low, which keeps the GBP strong versus the USD.

US Economic Indicators

The performance of the US dollar is directly correlated with the upcoming inflation data, and the core PCE index is an important indicator to keep an eye on. Notwithstanding a reversal from expectations of an early rate decrease by the Federal Reserve, the market is still anticipating a potential fall in June.

Key factors affecting the mood of the currency market are inflation trends, central bank policies, and measures of economic performance. The pair’s cautiously bullish short-term trajectory is supported by technical indicators and market expectations regarding the monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank.

Potential breakout routes are indicated by technical patterns, and the market is waiting for additional signals from economic data and Bank of England commentary about the GBP/USD pair.

Principal Aspects of the Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD could see further upside if it makes a robust move over its 200-day SMA; resistance levels at 1.09 and above are probably in the way. However, if the pair experiences this kind of rejection, they might withdraw to lower support levels.

The movement of the symmetric triangle-trading GBP/USD pair could be determined by technical resistance levels and the outcomes of significant economic data.

Final Thoughts

It is recommended that upcoming central bank statements and economic data be actively watched by traders and investors. For the foreseeable future, the interaction of technical analysis, inflation data, and expectations for central bank policy will have a significant impact on the movement of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs

As usual, managing the foreign exchange market’s volatility will require being cautious and keeping a close eye on the state of the market.

In summary, the main currency pairings’ trajectory and the comments made by central banks are expected to have an impact on the forex market at this critical juncture. The outcome of these events could provide new information on the state of the economy overall, which could have an impact on trading tactics and the mood of the market in the next days.

John V

John is a digital marketing master's student who enjoys writing articles on business, finance, health, and relationships in his free time. His diverse interests and ability to convey complex ideas in a clear, engaging manner make him a valuable contributor to these fields.

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